Contrarian MLB Bettors Up 26.55 Units so Far in 2012
Since 2005, Major League Baseball has arguably been the best sport for Betting Against the Public and the first half of the 2012 season was certainly no different, earning bettors +26.55 units.
The table below shows a breakdown of how bettors following a contrarian betting strategy have performed this MLB season.
| Moneyline Percent | # of Games | Units Won | ROI |
| 0% – 40% | 944 | +14.11 | +1.5% |
| 0% – 30% | 585 | +26.55 | +4.5% |
| 0% – 20% | 221 | +20.44 | +9.2% |
* All Betting Percentages represent Sports Insights’ Betting Trends data.
** Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine Units Won.
According to our Bet Labs software, bettors wagering on every team receiving 40% or fewer of moneyline wagers won +14.11 units for a Return On Investment (ROI) of 1.5%.
However, as you can see in the table above, fading larger public favorites increases Units Won and ROI even more.
For example, simply betting against every team receiving 70% or more of public betting action has already produced a profit of +26.55 units and a ROI of 4.5%.
Filtering this even further and solely betting against teams receiving 80% or more of public betting action produced a slightly less profit of +20.44 units, but the massive reduction in the number of games bet more than doubles the ROI to 9.2% at this level.
This Betting Against the Public strategy is the backbone of our Square Play and Best Bet betting systems, which are currently +55.6 units, combined, on the 2012 MLB season.
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